Purude & Michigan: By the Numbers

Being an engineer, sports nerd, and nerd in general, one thing I always love to do is dive into the numbers when I have time.  Last football season was the first time that I was really able to do this, albeit more with the Dallas Cowboys than Notre Dame.  I did a whole series for another website in which I examined the Cowboys offense, particularly focusing on play calling balance and red zone efficiency.  While I sadly don’t have the free time this year to hit someone else’s publishing schedule, this does free up more time for me to do the same with Notre Dame football.

I will be keeping a spreadsheet of stats via the wonder that is Google Docs, so if you wish to play along you can see I’m not pulling these numbers out of my ass.  Like I did with the Cowboys last season, I will highlight play balance and red zone efficiency of our offense.  This season I believe is a perfect time to start seeing as how we are under a completely new offensive scheme and our QBs love throwing into the stands while in the red zone.  Everyone loves to chime in on “we need to run the ball more” or “why are we passing here” and wish they had the headset on.  My analysis of this balance should hopefully show the method to the BK madness (except for FG-gate, totally done with that).

Since I’m not limited by another editor this time around like I was with my Cowboys analysis, I will also keep track of the exact same stats and play calling patterns of all of our opponents.  I want to see how teams approach and attack us and most importantly, I want to see how our defense reacts to it.  ND’s defense is by far the number one concern of this team, so I’m really looking forward to diving into those numbers throughout the season.

Now, for a couple of explanations on some numbers and terms I will use so we are all on the same page.  If you want to skip over this wall-of-text and get straight to the numbers, you can skip to the Purdue analysis (or if you want to bypass that game, head on to the Michigan analysis).

Firstly, I consider a “Red Zone Visit” any time a drive gets inside the 20–even if it’s just one play in the drive.  Furthermore, if a drive hits the red zone, backs out, and reaches it again, I consider this two visits.  I mostly do this for consistency sake.  Expanding upon this, a “Goal-to-Go” situation arises any time our drives hit a “1st and Goal” situation.  I think this is beyond vital for any red zone analysis because you aren’t just knocking on the door here, you are about to kick the damn thing down, and personally I believe you should.  It is for this reason I will not keep track of FG inside the 10 for my percentage calculations as I consider anything but a TD a failure here.

In order to track the proper number of times we run a pass play, sacks are counted as well as passing attempts.  College football is slightly annoying here as it counts sacks as negative rushing plays.  Therefore, sacks will be taken out of the “Rushing Attempts” category on my spreadsheet and not counted as a “Rushing Play” (however, I’ll leave the yards alone as I don’t really care about that).  This will only happen in the “Play Selection” section as I count passing and rushing plays by hand in the red zone instead of just using the box score.

Something else I do that other websites like ESPN don’t is count a turnover on downs as an actual turnover.  Considering the massive momentum changes that a failed fourth down can provide, I honestly don’t see a reason not to do this.

I will be keeping track of how many times drives are stalled by a “Three and Out”.  Note that this is only going to count drives which are stalled in normal fashion, aka, turnovers don’t count here, including going for it on fourth down.  Again, this is mostly for consistency in my numbers.

Finally, I will be keeping track of the number and scoring results of drives that start in “plus” territory, noted “50+” on the spreadsheet.  Basically, anytime a drive is started in opposing territory, I want to see how often we take advantage of it.  On the defensive side of the ball, I want to see how often we are able to step up and prevent points.

I believe that should cover everything, now onto the analysis.

Next Page – Purdue: By the Numbers

I’ve Slept on It: ND/Michigan Thoughts

I’ve returned from my vacation.  I’ve moved from being insanely pissed off about having my heart ripped out by yet another last second Skunkbear TD to only moderately depressed (thank you Texas Rangers for softening that blow, and screw you Dallas Cowboys for re-opening the wound).  I’ve taken the time to get together all my thoughts on how to approach this post because there is a lot to talk about.

I also just did a bunch of work emails and I still can’t sleep, so here we go!

First off, I need to give credit where credit is due. Denard Robinson is a fucking beast (and yes the f-bomb is totally necessary).  I’m not even hugely upset for the most part in how ND defending him.  There were just points where his speed flat out left the defense scrambling to contain him.  The kid is Michigan football right now and there is no doubt about it.  He stepped up and took the game over, kudos to him.

Now time to spew some venom.

Let’s address the elephant in the room: yes, I thought Kelly should’ve kicked the damned field goal and, no, I don’t think it cost us the game, although having the hindsight to see the last play could’ve been a 41 yard game winning FG attempt doesn’t make this any easier to swallow.  Now with my disagreement noted, I do see why Kelly was tempted and eventually did go for it.  It’s a huge gamble and yes, there are logical reasons to try for it, even if I don’t agree with them.

That all being said, Kelly wasn’t on the 1-yard line and we aren’t playing NCAA ’11 and I’m firmly in the camp of “if you can take three points, FOR THE LOVE OF GOD TAKE THEM” if anything more than a QB sneak or HB/FB dive over the pile is required to get the TD.  It’s a chance I don’t ever want to take and here is why: there is so much football left to be played.  Yes, I get an 11 point deficit isn’t much better than 14; however, what the hell does even clawing back within 7 matter when you are giving the ball right back to your opponent at the start of the second half?  I could come up with thousands of different scoring combinations for both teams to make several heads spin.  Long story short, you never have a clue what will happen and trying to “pull within a single score” is horribly short-sighted.

Not only that, why in the hell are you doing this with Nate f’n Montana?  I would’ve rather seen an attempt at a run play instead of what we drew up.  But of course, I know we needed to pass, Michigan knew we needed to pass, and even the usher spending more time looking for smuggled in marshmallows in the senior section than watching the game knew we needed to pass.  Maybe with Crist I could somewhat justify it, but trying to pass with Montana in that situation is absurd, especially when the defense is waiting for it.

Time to put the dead horse to sleep, but in the end, you thank your lucky starts you aren’t down by 20 more points after you’ve been sent reeling on both sides of the ball and you try to settle Nate down as best you can during halftime.  Is BK going to magically fix his tunnel vision at the half? No, but putting Nate in an air-mail situation isn’t going to do anything for his confidence either.  Lie to the kid and tell him you took the FG because you feel he can put some drives together and he just proved that to you on the previous drive.

And on the whole “BK didn’t know Crist was coming back” that’s a half-truth.  Crist was warming up with his helmet on and was in Kelly’s ear and in each huddle clearly showing he felt he was ok well before the half was over.  I guarantee the training staff told BK to err on the side of caution and wait for a halftime evaluation. So yes, he wasn’t 100% sure he’d be back in, but I’m sure he had a good feeling that a return was more than probable.  So again, you are taking unneeded risks.

Anyways, dead horse is beyond dead.  Moving on: Reese, why the hell was he in the game? If BK had such a short leash on him to pull him after a couple of series, why even bother?  That’s a one way ticket to send Reese into instant head-case status and have the opposing defense smell massive amounts of desperation from your direction.  Not too mention the idea of a flea-flicker to “eliminate reads” makes no sense and was such a monumentally bad idea, I don’t even have words for it.  Reese didn’t even make a read, he was damn near soiling himself, caught the pitch from Allen and threw to where he thought he remembered the receiver would be and forgot reading the defense is a good idea.

I don’t mean to demean Reese at all here, so don’t get me wrong.  That’s just an awful situation to throw a kid into.  Don’t toss in a damned trick play when the kid will be very understandably jittery.  BK got too cute with it, plain and simple.

Now to the defense.  Yes, they did a decent job in the game, but a couple major brain-farts really screwed them in the long run.  Michigan’s first TD was set up by some sort of zone coverage confusion by either Walls or one of the safeties.  Either way, Walls played the short route and no one had the zone over the top to help and it looked just awful.  Those mental mistakes cannot happen.  The 96 yard run was brutal too–I don’t care who is running the ball, big plays like that is the result of complete breakdowns.

On to Crist.  He came in looking like he could walk on water when he came back in the game then seemingly promptly forgot what he was doing at times.  Granted, some of the incompletions were not his fault, but there were two glaring issues that drove me nuts.  The first is his timing on any timing route: it’s awful and the ball was on our receivers well before their heads ever turned around.  That needs to change pronto.  Same with the air mailing of balls into the endzone.  Crist seems beyond terrified to throw an INT in the endzone, which is good, but not to the point to where damn near every ball thrown into it has a better chance of being caught by a fan than your own man.  Also, there is no shame in throwing a pick on a Hail Mary to end the game–let your receivers try to make a miracle happen.  Finally, remember what I said last week about Crist going into panic mode under pressure? Rewatch his pick if you can stomach it because that was full blown panic mode and beyond a terrible decision (except this time instead of running it like he should have, he threw it…go figure).

And to end the rant, we get to Michael Floyd who is firmly planted my shit-list for the time being.  Yes, I have been in his corner big time since he’s been here, but this game pissed me off.  It wasn’t just the drops, which was very un-Floyd like to begin with, but it was him pulling a Shaq Evans during the Alma Mater.  I’m not sure if NBC had any footage of it (and I doubt it since I saw no mentions on it on Twitter), and I couldn’t get a good enough shot myself on my phone from my seat; however, sure enough, there he stood, helmet on, and started to jog into the tunnel as “Love thee Notre Dame” was sung.  Selfish attitude needs to go dude.  I’m sure you are pissed that you got zero chance to make a play on the ball at game’s end or even possibly at your own crappy performance throughout; however, those actions look completely selfish and have no place on the field.  It looked like he was hanging his QB and team out to dry and that’s just shameful.  I expect far better from him as a supposed leader of this team.

I’m calling it now, if Floyd doesn’t come out against MSU with a different attitude and playing like his life depended on it, I fear for his production the rest of the season.  I might be overreacting, but keep in mind, I’ve had to deal with T.O. before.  I know Floyd is seeing far more double coverage, but he isn’t playing like himself at all as of now and his actions during the Alma Mater have be beyond worried about where his head is at.

I do really hate that most of this post is a giant rant because there are some positives to be had here.  I just hate losing games that I feel we should have won.  Rudolph’s 95 yard TD should have been a shining example on how easy it should’ve been to carve Michigan up, even with limited play time from Crist.  This team is growing and as I said in my preview, the holes we have are now exposed.  They aren’t horrendous and these players will continue to grow.

I’m going to try to do some statistical analysis from the last two games soon and do some emotionless blogging to get another perspective on where we are at.  I won’t promise BGS quality, but I’ll give it a damn good shot.  It’ll be therapeutic after a loss like this.

God, I hate losing to Michigan…

ND/Michigan Preview

I hope everyone is enjoying Michigan Sucks week as much as I have. While being out on a river for a few days is quite a bit of fun, it doesn’t help me study the Skunkbears too well. Like my last mobile post, this one too will be a bit briefer than usual.

Despite not being able to study up on Michigan, it doesn’t take much to realize the key matchup will be how the Irish defense handles Denard Robinson. While I’m sure NBC will beat everyone over the head with Robinson’s shoe-tying abilities (or lack thereof), here is what should pop out: 186 passing yards, 197 rushing yards, 0 INTs, and a 86.4 completion percentage.

Dual-threat QB is an understatement.

The Irish front seven will definitely have their hands full. Last week against Purdue, the pass rush had a bit of a hard time adjusting to Marve’s constant bootlegs and Henry’s rushes for the brief time he was in. Robinson will be a whole other animal (and a much faster one at that) and will be a true test to see where Notre Dame’s front seven is at.

I’m honestly not too worried about our secondary, although they will face a much faster WR corps. If we do have some holes, they will be exposed Saturday.

On the other side of the ball, the Irish should be torching the ever living hell out of Michigan’s piss-poor secondary. While UCONN only put up 10 points, they did manage to throw for over 200 yards against a secondary that I swear is being held together by duct tape this season. ND has many more options with far greater talent than UCONN had. If the Skunkbear secondary is being embarrassed repeatedly, I will be shocked.

Of course, this means the onus will be squarely on Crist to make plays and be accurate. The only way I can see Michigan surviving ND’s offense will be to put mountains of pressure on Crist and pray he panics.

The final thing to watch is ball security. The Irish were playing hot potato far too often against Purdue. Thankfully, only one of these fumbles resulted in a turnover, but a couple turnovers could spell disaster for the Irish in no time.

Best case scenario is that the Irish defense shuts down Robinson and roll all over Michigan. Worst case scenario is a straight up shootout. In the end though, Michigan still sucks, Ann Arbor is a whore, and my prediction is an Irish win, 38-27.

ND/Purdue Postgame Toughts

I’m just now leaving from ND’s victory over Purdue and wanted to get some initial thoughts down before I celebrate too hard. Forgive the brevity as well since this is being composed completely via iPhone.

First off, a win is a win, but ND essentially handed 16 points away. Floyd’s fumble should have been an eventual TD. The safety was rather inexcusable as well. That safety also led to a poor free kick that set up Purdue’s TD. These mistakes made the final far closer than it should have been and ND cannot expect to continue to win making them.

Next on the list is Crist. Overall, I was happy with his performance, but a couple of things stood out. The main thing that jumped at me was how he acted against blitzes. Instead of finding the hot receiver, Crist’s first reaction was to run instead of taking a hit on a throw. His accuracy also needs a tad bit of work as the two overthrows to a fairly open Floyd in the endzone. I chalk most of this up to inexperience and trying to kick off some rust at the beginning of a season. It’ll be interesting to see the adjustments Kelly takes with his young QB.

The defense was the best surprise all game. They got constant pressure on the QB and had very few lapses. After watching the Tenuta blitz-happy defense fail to deliver on sacks, it was quite refreshing to see an opposing QB flat on his back most of the game. Granted, Purdue is far from an amazing offense, but they did their jobs well and I expected then to give up far more points than they did.

My main complaint is with T’eo. I love his aggressive nature, but he tried to land a knockout blow far too often, resulting in several missed tackles. It appeared that Kelly got a hold of him at one point (hard to tell which coach it was from my seat), but he did settle back in during crunch-time.

Darren Walls, holy crap. I see why he was named defensive captain now. Solid effort all around for him.

Kyle Rudolph is definitely going to be Crist’s security blanket. Some big time third down conversions from him.

Theo Riddick needs to work on his hands. I know he is adjusting to his new role, but a couple of his drops were inexcusable.

Cierre Wood is good at football. His first touches had Purdue reeling.

Special teams are finally not “special”. Well, save for the flea-flicker style punt that had my whole section WTF’ing.

Vegas always knows. ND was favored by 11. We won by 11. Hate you handicappers.

Oh yeah, Purdue still sucks and that big-ass drum is still stupid as hell.

Bring on the Skunkbears.

Tweeting ND Football: A Guide to My Insanity

Yes, two football posts in the same day! Excitement is building for sure (or I’m just trying to get in all the ideas I’ve had for a while before I go on vacation).

As I mentioned in my last post, if you aren’t used to following me on Twitter during the football season, you might be in for a rather interesting surprise. In all honesty, when I tweet during a football game you are pretty much getting online what you would if you were sitting next to me in person: a drunken fan making way too many jokes and using far too much profanity.

While I’m sure that is pretty par for the Twitter course, there are also a handful of fun hashtags that I love to use as well. For those not up on the Twitter lingo, here’s the quick lesson: a hashtag is written like “#NDFB”, and that becomes a clickable search to see anyone else tweeting with said hashtag. Think of it as a quick community search. However, some of my creations and those of others aren’t too well known or are used for pure humor. To prevent head-scratching (and hopefully further use of these awesome hashtags), I figured this post would be a good primer (and I believe the NDAlumni account did something similar…with a lot less profanity and hate…so uh…mine is more fun!).

So without further ado, here is some of what you might see throughout this football season in no particular order:

#NDFB – AKA Norte Dame Football. Twitter needs character saving and this is only five and therefore it wins. I do believe HerLoyalSons attempted to push this last year and if they didn’t, I’ll say they did anyways. This will pretty much be on the end of all ND tweets in and out of the game. Love it, use it, band together ND Nation.

#Cannon – I can’t claim credit for this amazing nickname; however, NDEddieMac deserves to have his genius shared. Cannon is none other than Michael Floyd, whose explosive plays can be compared too…well, being shot out of a Cannon. With Tate gone this season, I expect to see this hashtag appear in jubilation with regularity throughout the season.

#Cannon4Heisman / #Floyd4Heisman – Both are self explanatory. Both are appropriate. Spread the word folks.

#DIAF – This one is more common for anger in general. Stands for “Die in a Fire”. Expect this to be used in the general direction of many referees, Lee Corso, and Mark May.

#Kiffykins – Nickname for the head son of a bitch coach at Southern Cal, Lane Kiffin. Often used in conjunction with his many secondary violations or other circus acts he is sure to preform this year.

#FUSC / #FSouthernCal – Should be self-explanatory. Suggested to use #FSouthernCal when possible as the Trojans seem to hate being called Southern Cal. I know that 140 character limit can be harsh, which is why #FUSC works as well. If at all possible, use both for maximum hatred. May also be used in conjunction with #DIAF and #Kiffykins to send hatred levels even higher.

#CheatOn / #CheatForever – “Fight On” and “Win Forever” are now replaced by these more appropriate slogans for Southern Cal.

#MuckFichigan – Self-explanatory if you are good with anagrams or dyslexic.

#NDFBIsDeterminedToKillMe – This one I can claim credit for creating. Since ND decided that every game past Nevada was going to be a damned heart attack until the end last season, this came into existence. In fact, it’s been extended to pretty much any sports team I follow. This better not ever become trending…

Non-ND Related Hashtags:

#WarEagle – I’m watching an Auburn game. Hey, my sister goes there, get off me.

#GigEm – I’m watching a Texas A&M game. That’s the Texas school that I’ll cheer for.

#SawEmOff – Anti-Longhorn hashtag. Likely will be used in conjunction with me calling Texas “TU” instead of “UT”. It’s an Aggie thing.

That’s what I can think off of the top of my head. I’m sure we will be creating some more fun hashtags of hilarity and hate throughout the season as well as making many ridiculous ones using the name of Dayne Crist. If I left something out or you have your own hashtag genius that you wish to share, play along in the comments section.

The first three football weekends I will be traveling (twice at the games, once on a vacation), so I’m not sure how many tweets I will squeeze in come gametime. However, believe me, I will indeed be very active on the Twitter-front!

Tweet like a champion today! #HolyCornyHellICantBelieveIJustSaidThat

FOOTBALL!

Ok, video game nerd posts are done for the time being.  Time to switch gears to sports nerd.

Football officially starts tomorrow and the only football that matters starts this Saturday at 3:30pm EST as the Brian Kelly era kicks off in South Bend.  I hear they are even bringing in the largest drum in the world simply to herald his arrival.

For those new to this blog, and how I write Irish football, allow me to paint a quick picture of what you will see here.  Firstly, as we gear up for gameday, expect sarcastic and downright insulting comments to our opponents more often than not (especially for rivalry games).  Sure, I’ll toss in some actual analysis in the middle of it, but college football is no fun unless you get the masses riled up and piss off an opponent here and there.  Afterward, expect (most of) the sarcasm to stop as I’ll break down the game as best I can.  I’d like to think myself a decent voice of reason when it comes to ND and do attempt to back up my opinions as best I can in stats and what I see on the field.

If you are following me on Twitter for the first time this season, God help you.  There will be a whole other post dedicated to that (seriously).

Anyways, on to this little “rivalry” game in which a far inferior school in Indiana tries to take a stick trophy away from us.

Trying to do a pre-game analysis on this is a bit rough because, well…I have no idea what to expect.  Trying to read into spring games and practices can be a real fool’s errand.  This time around, even trying to read too much into last season’s matchup won’t help too much since we are running an entirely different offense, with an entirely different QB.  Even our defense is getting a shakeup as we are back to the 3-4 after running whatever-the-hell-that-hybrid-Tenuta-defense-that-sucked-so-much-ass was last season.

However, I do think there are a few things I think I can say with some confidence that we will see and should look for this weekend.

Firstly, the offense should be just fine, especially in this game.  Remember when Dayne Crist came into the game last season and lead a spread option attack all over Purdue?  Yep, I do too.  Granted he didn’t pass that much; however, we have a small glimpse of what we can see.  Unless Purude’s rushing defense did some major overhauling in the offseason this could end very, very badly for them.  Weis was no spread option master (see: 2007 and Detmetrius Jones); however, Kelly has made a living and got the ND job running this scheme.  If we don’t put up big numbers on Purdue, I will be shocked, and my liver will be in grave danger.

Next comes the offensive line.  Yes, I know it is a part of the offense, but considering that this has been a major issue for quite a while (read: we haven’t been able to run the ball worth a damn), it needs its own category.  Kelly started off his opening presser by talking about all kinds of workout stats and they were beyond impressive.  Thankfully, football is one of those games in which being bigger, stronger, and faster than the other guy usually equals success.  So if our new coaching staff has been able to teach our boys how to block without holding, we should be in phenomenal shape this time around and seriously be able to throw our weight around (finally).

Not only that, but ND has two big things helping the O-line this time around.  Firstly, Kelly’s running game relies on reads and misdirection.  If you remember back to the Weis era, this was how we actually were able to have any success in the running game.  Combine a ton of misdirection with a stronger and quicker O-line and a shitty run defense and good things should happen.  Secondly, we are going to run defenses, starting with Purdue, ragged with our offensive pace (and shorter commercial breaks /CueWorthlessBitchingFromEveryoneElse).  In the second half, I fully expect us to be the team in better shape to close out, and most importantly, not blow games (and hopefully not giving me any more damned heart attacks).

As for our defense, all I have are two words of solid analysis for you: MANTI T’EO.

Now for the opponent analysis: Robert Marve.  Good Lord, where do I begin here… Not that I doubt the kid has talent, but he is being thought of ever so highly as the QB that will be the savior of Purdue and lead them to glory.  Why do I laugh at this Miami transfer?  Well:

At Miami, Marve threw more interceptions than touchdowns and didn’t play in the bowl game because he was academically ineligible. But his strong arm and mobility stand out.

Then there’s that swagger.

Just let the bold sink into your head for a bit.  Purdue’s great hope is a guy that not only has a crappy TD/INT ratio, but also managed to make himself academically ineligible…at the U.  Really?

But hold on! He has that “swagger”.  The only thing that aggravates the piss out of more college football fans than ND being remotely mentioned in anything national (remember folks, we are irrelevant), it would be the “reemergence” of the “U swagger” (that is still non-existent and an insult to the thugs of their glory days).  Marve was part of said “swagger revival” by leading the U to a stunning 7-5 record only to screw himself out of the bowl game and then have his coaching staff decide he wasn’t good enough for U swagger, strating Jacoby Harris instead in 2009.

Where the hell is his so-called swagger coming from again?  Actually, the better question is why is Purdue so damn excited to catch a Hurricon reject?

Oh wait…Purdue went 5-7 and 4-8 the last two seasons.  I take that back, this is exactly the kind of glory Purdue has been waiting for.

Enjoy it Boilers!

Completely non-biased, non-homer Prediction that I didn’t pull out of my ass: Irish 38 – Purdue 20